Longitudinal Associations of Staff Shortages and Staff Levels with Health Outcomes in Nursing Homes.

OBJECTIVES: To examine whether facility-reported staff shortages and total staff levels were independently associated with changes in nursing home (NH) outcomes in 2020. DESIGN: Longitudinal cohort study. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: A total of 8466 NHs with staffing and outcome data. METHODS: This study used NH COVID-19 Public File (2020), Nursing Home Compare (2019-2020), and Payroll-Based Journal data (2019-2020). Outcome measures included the percentage of long-stay residents in a facility with declines in activities in daily living (ADLs), decreases in mobility, weight loss, and pressure ulcers in 2020 Q2, 2020 Q3, and 2020 Q4. Independent variables were whether NHs reported any shortage of aides or licensed nurses and total staff hours per resident day (HPRD). Separate 2-level (NH, state) Hierarchical Generalized Linear Mixed models examined the association of facility-reported shortages and staff hours with key NH resident outcomes, controlling for NH characteristics and COVID-19 infections. RESULTS: The weekly percentage of NHs reporting any staff shortage averaged 20%. Total staff HPRD increased slightly from 3.7 in 2019 to 3.8 in 2020. Health outcomes were stable during 2019 and 2020 Q1 but worsened substantially starting in 2020 Q2. For example, the percentage of residents with mobility loss increased from 16.2% in 2020 Q1 to 27.9% in 2020 Q4. Facility-reported staff shortages were associated with an increase in the proportion of residents with an ADL decline (0.54 percentage points), mobility loss (0.80 percentage points), weight loss (0.22 percentage points), and pressure ulcers (0.22 percentage points) (all P < .01). Total staff HPRD was not associated with changes in any outcomes (all P > .05). CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: NHs reported worsened health outcomes among long-stay residents in 2020, with worse outcomes found among facilities that reported staff shortages but not among those with lower total staff levels. Facility-reported shortages provide important quality information during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Excess deaths from COVID-19 among Medicare beneficiaries with psychiatric diagnoses: community versus nursing home.

BACKGROUND: Psychiatric illness may pose an additional risk of death for older adults during the COVID-19 pandemic. Older adults in the community versus institutions might be influenced by the pandemic differently. This study examines excess deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic among Medicare beneficiaries with and without psychiatric diagnoses (depression, anxiety, bipolar disorder, and schizophrenia) in the community versus nursing homes. METHODS: This is a retrospective cohort study of a 20% random sample of 15,229,713 fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries, from January 2019 through December 2021. Unadjusted monthly mortality risks, COVID-19 infection rates, and case-fatality rates after COVID-19 diagnosis were calculated. Excess deaths in 2020, compared to 2019 were estimated from multivariable logistic regressions. RESULTS: Of all included Medicare beneficiaries in 2020 (N = 5,140,619), 28.9% had a psychiatric diagnosis; 1.7% lived in nursing homes. In 2020, there were 246,422 observed deaths, compared to 215,264 expected, representing a 14.5% increase over expected. Patients with psychiatric diagnoses had more excess deaths than those without psychiatric diagnoses (1,107 vs. 403 excess deaths per 100,000 beneficiaries, p < 0.01). The largest increases in mortality risks were observed among patients with schizophrenia (32.4% increase) and bipolar disorder (25.4% increase). The pandemic-associated increase in deaths with psychiatric diagnoses was only found in the community, not in nursing homes. The increased mortality for patients with psychiatric diagnoses was limited to those with medical comorbidities. The increase in mortality for psychiatric diagnoses was associated with higher COVID-19 infection rates (1-year infection rate = 7.9% vs. 4.2% in 2020), rather than excess case fatality. CONCLUSIONS: Excess deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic were disproportionally greater in beneficiaries with psychiatric diagnoses, at least in part due to higher infection rates. Policy interventions should focus on preventing COVID-19 infections and deaths among community-dwelling patients with major psychiatric disorders in addition to those living the nursing homes.

Breast and Lung Cancer Screening Among Medicare Enrollees During the COVID-19 Pandemic.

Importance: Several studies reported sharp decreases in screening mammography for breast cancer and low-dose computed tomographic screening for lung cancer in the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic, followed by a return to normal or near-normal levels in the summer of 2020. Objective: To determine the observed vs expected mammography and low-dose computed tomographic scan rates from the beginning of the pandemic through April 2022. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this retrospective cohort study assessing mammography and low-dose computed tomography rates from January 2017 through April 2022, data for January 2016 to February 2020 were used to generate expected rates for the period March 2020 to April 2022. The study included a 20% national sample of Medicare fee-for-service enrollees among women aged 50 to 74 years for mammography, and men and women aged 55 to 79 years for low-dose computed tomographic scan. Main Outcomes and Measures: Receipt of screening mammography or low-dose computed tomographic scan. Results: The yearly cohorts for the mammography rates included more than 1 600 000 women aged 50 to 74 years, and the cohorts for the low-dose computed tomographic scan rates included more than 3 700 000 men and women aged 55 to 79 years. From January 2017 through February 2020, monthly mammography rates were flat, whereas there was a monotonic increase in low-dose computed tomographic scan rates, from approximately 500 per million per month in early 2017 to 1100 per million per month by January 2020. Over the period from March 2020 to April 2022, there were episodic drops in both mammography and low-dose computed tomographic scan rates, coincident with increases in national COVID-19 infection rates. For the periods from March 2020 to February 2020 and March 2021 to February 2022, the observed low-dose computed tomographic scan rates were 24% (95% CI, 23%-24%) and 14% (95% CI, 13%-15%) below expected rates, whereas mammography rates were 17% (95% CI, 17%-18%) and 4% (95% CI, 4%-3%) below expected. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study, the decreases in cancer screening during the early phases of the COVID-19 pandemic did not resolve after the initial pandemic surges. Successful interventions to improve screening rates should address pandemic-specific reasons for low screening participation.

Effectiveness of COVID-19 Booster on the Risk of Hospitalization Among Medicare Beneficiaries.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the effectiveness of booster vaccinations on the risk of hospitalization with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and how it varies by enrollee characteristics and interval from the initial vaccination to receipt of a booster. PATIENTS AND METHODS: This cohort study used 100% Medicare claims from January 1, 2020, through December 31, 2021, and matched 3,940,475 individuals who received boosters to 3,940,475 controls based on week and type of original COVID-19 vaccine and demographic and clinical characteristics. We compared the association of booster vs no booster with COVID-19 hospitalization using Cox proportional hazards regression models controlling for patient characteristics. We also determined the association of time from original vaccine to booster with COVID-19 hospitalization. RESULTS: Over a maximum of 130 days of follow-up, boosted enrollees had 8.20 (95% CI, 7.81 to 8.60) COVID-19 hospitalizations per million days vs 43.70 (95% CI, 42.79 to 44.64) for controls (81% effectiveness). Effectiveness varied by race, prior hospitalizations, and certain comorbidities, for example, leukemia/lymphoma (53% effectiveness), autoimmune disease (73%), and dementia (73%). Boosters received between 6 and 9 months after original vaccination varied between 81% and 85% effectiveness, while boosters received at 5 to 6 months (62%) or less than 5 months (58%) were less effective. CONCLUSION: Boosters are highly effective in the Medicare population. Approximately 69,225 hospitalizations would be prevented by boosters in the 15 million individuals aged 65 years or older currently not boosted in a period similar to the September 2020 through January 2021 period studied. Boosters provided the greatest benefits if they were received between 6 and 9 months following original vaccinations. However, boosters were associated with substantial decreases in COVID-19 hospitalizations in all categories of enrollees.

Hospitalizations and Mortality From Non-SARS-CoV-2 Causes Among Medicare Beneficiaries at US Hospitals During the SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic.

Importance: The increased hospital mortality rates from non-SARS-CoV-2 causes during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic are incompletely characterized. Objective: To describe changes in mortality rates after hospitalization for non-SARS-CoV-2 conditions during the COVID-19 pandemic and how mortality varies by characteristics of the admission and hospital. Design, Setting, and Participants: Retrospective cohort study from January 2019 through September 2021 using 100% of national Medicare claims, including 4626 US hospitals. Participants included 8 448 758 individuals with non-COVID-19 medical admissions with fee-for-service Medicare insurance. Main Outcomes and Measures: Outcome was mortality in the 30 days after admission with adjusted odds generated from a 3-level (admission, hospital, and county) logistic regression model that included diagnosis, demographic variables, comorbidities, hospital characteristics, and hospital prevalence of SARS-CoV-2. Results: There were 8 448 758 non-SARS-CoV-2 medical admissions in 2019 and from April 2020 to September 2021 (mean [SD] age, 73.66 [12.88] years; 52.82% women; 821 569 [11.87%] Black, 438 453 [6.34%] Hispanic, 5 351 956 [77.35%] White, and 307 218 [4.44%] categorized as other). Mortality in the 30 days after admission increased from 9.43% in 2019 to 11.48% from April 1, 2020, to March 31, 2021 (odds ratio [OR], 1.20; 95% CI, 1.19-1.21) in multilevel logistic regression analyses including admission and hospital characteristics. The increase in mortality was maintained throughout the first 18 months of the pandemic and varied by race and ethnicity (OR, 1.27; 95% CI, 1.23-1.30 for Black enrollees; OR, 1.25; 95% CI, 1.23-1.27 for Hispanic enrollees; and OR, 1.18; 95% CI, 1.17-1.19 for White enrollees); Medicaid eligibility (OR, 1.25; 95% CI, 1.24-1.27 for Medicaid eligible vs OR, 1.18; 95% CI, 1.16-1.18 for noneligible); and hospital quality score, measured on a scale of 1 to 5 stars with 1 being the worst and 5 being the best (OR, 1.27; 95% CI, 1.22-1.31 for 1 star vs OR, 1.11; 95% CI, 1.08-1.15 for 5 stars). Greater hospital prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 was associated with greater increases in odds of death from the prepandemic period to the pandemic period; for example, comparing mortality in October through December 2020 with October through December 2019, the OR was 1.44 (95% CI, 1.39-1.49) for hospitals in the top quartile of SARS-CoV-2 admissions vs an OR of 1.19 (95% CI, 1.16-1.22) for admissions to hospitals in the lowest quartile. This association was mostly limited to admissions with high-severity diagnoses. Conclusions and Relevance: The prolonged elevation in mortality rates after hospital admission in 2020 and 2021 for non-SARS-CoV-2 diagnoses contrasts with reports of improvement in hospital mortality during 2020 for SARS-CoV-2. The results of this cohort study suggest that, with the continued impact of SARS-CoV-2, it is important to implement interventions to improve access to high-quality hospital care for those with non-SARS-CoV-2 diseases.

Risk Factors Associated With SARS-CoV-2 Infections, Hospitalization, and Mortality Among US Nursing Home Residents.

Importance: Nursing home residents account for approximately 40% of deaths from SARS-CoV-2. Objective: To identify risk factors for SARS-CoV-2 incidence, hospitalization, and mortality among nursing home residents in the US. Design, Setting, and Participants: This retrospective longitudinal cohort study was conducted in long-stay residents aged 65 years or older with fee-for-service Medicare residing in 15 038 US nursing homes from April 1, 2020, to September 30, 2020. Data were analyzed from November 22, 2020, to February 10, 2021. Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcome was risk of diagnosis with SARS-CoV-2 (per International Statistical Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision, Clinical Modification [ICD-10-CM] codes) by September 30 and hospitalization or death within 30 days after diagnosis. Three-level (resident, facility, and county) logistic regression models and competing risk models conditioned on nursing home facility were used to determine association of patient characteristics with outcomes. Results: Among 482 323 long-stay residents included, the mean (SD) age was 82.7 (9.2) years, with 326 861 (67.8%) women, and 383 838 residents (79.6%) identifying as White. Among 137 119 residents (28.4%) diagnosed with SARS-CoV-2 during follow up, 29 204 residents (21.3%) were hospitalized, and 26 384 residents (19.2%) died within 30 days. Nursing homes explained 37.2% of the variation in risk of infection, while county explained 23.4%. Risk of infection increased with increasing body mass index (BMI; calculated as weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared) (eg, BMI>45 vs BMI 18.5-25: adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 1.19; 95% CI, 1.15-1.24) but varied little by other resident characteristics. Risk of hospitalization after SARS-CoV-2 increased with increasing BMI (eg, BMI>45 vs BMI 18.5-25: aHR, 1.40; 95% CI, 1.28-1.52); male sex (aHR, 1.32; 95% CI, 1.29-1.35); Black (aHR, 1.28; 95% CI, 1.24-1.32), Hispanic (aHR, 1.20; 95% CI, 1.15-1.26), or Asian (aHR, 1.46; 95% CI, 1.36-1.57) race/ethnicity; impaired functional status (eg, severely impaired vs not impaired: aHR, 1.15; 95% CI, 1.10-1.22); and increasing comorbidities, such as renal disease (aHR, 1.21; 95% CI, 1.18-1.24) and diabetes (aHR, 1.16; 95% CI, 1.13-1.18). Risk of mortality increased with age (eg, age >90 years vs 65-70 years: aHR, 2.55; 95% CI, 2.44-2.67), impaired cognition (eg, severely impaired vs not impaired: aHR, 1.79; 95% CI, 1.71-1.86), and functional impairment (eg, severely impaired vs not impaired: aHR, 1.94; 1.83-2.05). Conclusions and Relevance: These findings suggest that among long-stay nursing home residents, risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection was associated with county and facility of residence, while risk of hospitalization and death after SARS-CoV-2 infection was associated with facility and individual resident characteristics. For many resident characteristics, there were substantial differences in risk of hospitalization vs mortality. This may represent resident preferences, triaging decisions, or inadequate recognition of risk of death.